Drafting high school arms: Risk vs. reward

The 2016 Draft landscape may seem a bit muddled a week away from its start on June 9, with little clarity at the top in particular. But one thing does seem apparent: the strength of this class may well be in high school pitching.

A quick look at MLBPipeline.com’s Top 100 Draft prospects confirms this theory. Jason Groome, the lefty from southern New Jersey, and Riley Pint, who hails from Kansas, are first and second on that list. They both have a very good chance of being taken among the top 10 picks of the first round. And they’re not alone. Alabama high school lefty Braxton Garrett and right-hander Matt Manning, a standout from Northern California, have also heard their names come up in the top 10 conversation.

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High school pitching is the ultimate in the risk vs. reward exercise that is the Draft. From 1965-2015, there have been 100 high school pitchers taken in the top 10 of the June Draft. A total of 38 of them never reached, or have not yet reached, the big leagues. In nine years, there were prep pitchers taken in the top 10, none of whom spent a day at the highest level. The 2000 Draft had five high school arms taken that high, and none of them made it past Double-A.

Success stories

Sometimes there is reward when that risk is taken. Here is a list of the top 10 high school pitchers taken in the top 10 of the Draft, ranked by WAR:

WAR – Name, Team, Pick, Year 53.2 – Dwight Gooden, Mets, No. 7, 1982 52.2 – Zack Greinke, Royals, No. 6, 2002 52.1 – Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, No. 7, 2006 39.7 – Jon Matlack, Mets, No. 4, 1967 35.9 – Josh Beckett, Marlins, No. 2, 1999 27.7 – Kerry Wood, Cubs, No. 4, 1995 26.6 – Mike Morgan, A’s, No. 4, 1978 25.0 – Madison Bumgarner, Giants, No. 10, 2007 23.7 – Joe Coleman, Senators, No. 3, 1965 23.6 – Bill Gullickson, Expos, No. 2, 1977

Gooden …

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