UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres staff picks and predictions

The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for tomorrow night’s (Saturday, August 6th) UFC Fight Night 92 in Salt Lake City, Utah. It’s a unanimous call for Yair Rodriguez to beat Alex Caceres in the main event. The co-main event really shocked me, as Rony Jason vs. Dennis Bermudez is split. I figured I’d be one of 2 people at most to go for the upset here, but I guess not.

Note 1: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Nick Baldwin entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Note 2: Please excuse Tim Burke’s loud noises for the Swanson vs. Kawajiri prediction.

Alex Caceres vs. Yair Rodriguez

Mookie Alexander: It’s not as if Caceres has no chance to win this, but even when he was kicking Cole Miller’s ass in his last fight, he still nearly managed to lose by armbar in the final round. This has plagued Caceres’ career long enough, which is to either start poorly or make a mistake that nearly or actually costs him the fight. Rodriguez is still a raw fighter but he’s so dynamic and powerful that I have to think he’ll tag Caceres hard and put him away at some point. This will be a thriller and we could see Caceres give Rodriguez problems on the ground, but I’m sticking with Yair. Yair Rodriguez by something cool, round 2.

Zane Simon: It’s really hard for me to see Caceres winning this. I didn’t think he’d beat Cole Miller, and he did, but only after flaming out brutally in round 3. Even in the midst of one of his best career performances, he just doesn’t have the round by round consistency to be trustable. Add to it that he’ll probably give Yair a lot of the range and time he wants to create dynamic offense and this has Yair Rodriguez via TKO, round 2 all over it.

Jed Meshew: Yair Rodriguez will eventually meet an abrupt and painful stop to his momentous rise, but this ain’t gonna be it. Caceres is kind of like Yair Rodriguez if you turned his levels down to “meh.” The kind of guy who is gonna beat Rodriguez is someone who can exploit his kick-only, fundamental-less striking game or ground him and work him over on top. Bruce Leeroy ain’t that dude. Maaaaaaybe Yair does one of those ridiculous rolling kicks and Caceres jumps on him and takes his back but I don’t see it. Rodriguez is going to pop off some violent, dope ish and build the highlight reel. Rodriguez by spinning jump knee KO, round 3.

Staff picking Caceres:Staff picking Rodriguez: Nick, Fraser, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Zane, Jed

Dennis Bermudez vs. Rony Jason

Mookie Alexander: This is a fight Bermudez should win fairly easily, but that’s sort of the problem with Bermudez. The Kawajiri fight aside, he’s got a history of getting tagged hard and otherwise getting into bad positions that he has to get out of. Jason’s been gone for awhile with the diuretic ban, and is also a bit of a wild man himself. Bermudez is more skilled, but Jason has the unpredictable type of finishing ability both on the feet and on the ground where he can seize a small opportunity and make the most of it. I’m going with the upset here. It’s not that I think Bermudez isn’t a top 10 FW or that Rony Jason is one, it’s just the sort of matchup I’m not confident Bermudez can avoid not getting caught with something. Rony Jason by submission, round 2.

Zane Simon: Bermudez deserves to be the favorite here. He’s the more consistent performer (even if he makes some terrible moment-to-moment decisions), he’s a technically very well-rounded fighter, and he’s probably the better athlete, all while also being a great wrestler. Still, it’s those moment to moment problems and especially (as Connor put it) his troubles integrating offense and defense, that have me picking Rony Jason. Jason is a dynamic finisher with good power and a slick sub game. Bermudez will probably be winning right up until he loses, but Rony Jason via sub, Round 2.

Jed: Bermudez is one of those fighters that ends up being way better in the video game than he is in actuality. All the pieces are there – he is a good wrestler, technical striker, pushes a high pace – but somehow he ends up finding ways to lose. Maybe it’s just that he isn’t defensively minded and he’s not super durable, or maybe it’s just that his losses are dramatic and noteworthy and his wins less so. I don’t know. But it just feels like he should be further along in the division than he is. Rony Jason isn’t amazing but he’s the kind of guy who could absolutely launch some high octane offense at Bermudez which ends up sealing the deal. Still, on the aggregate I think Bermudez probably wins this fight more often than he loses, even if the times he loses it will be spectacular and violent. Bermudez by decision.

Staff picking Bermudez: Nick, Fraser, Phil, JedStaff picking Jason: Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Zane

Chris Camozzi vs. Thales Leites

Mookie Alexander: You’re here to read Phil Mackenzie’s prediction. Thales Leites by unanimous decision.

Victor: I heard that if Camozzi wins he gets to fight Jacare again. Leites seems to have really cleaned up his striking deficiencies and defense, and while he can’t seem to beat the elite group of his division he could certainly drop and finish Camozzi. Thales Leites by TKO.

Phil Mackenzie: Leites looked into the steel-barred cell containing the creature that had once been his greatest secret weapon, and wondered where it had all gone wrong. When he had returned to the Great and Generic Land of Middleweight, he had been full of joy; full of new ideas to share. He would unite the BJJ Guys with Suspect Gas Tanks under his banner; he would defeat the Volume Punchers and the Scrappers, and indeed, for a while, it had all been going well. He had started educating his people in the value of finishes; proving to them how exciting BJJ Guys could be. He defeated the Scrapper King Boetsch, and set his eyes on Bisping.

That had been the moment, he realized. When he was turned away by Bisping, who had impossibly gone on to become the latest God King. The Lancastrian’s ascent had mirrored a slow fall from Leites. Sapo Natal had split away, announcing himself the king of his own traditionalist faction of the BJJ Guys. The Moose had defeated Leites easily. Down, down, deeper and down.

“Maaargh” said Carlos Jr in the cell. Leites sighed. It had seemed a good idea. His advisor Casey had suggested to him that he create a living weapon; a BJJ Guy artificially blended with Divine blood and that of his favourite actor, Gyllenhaal of California, in order to make an undefeatable generic middleweight. Leites had been desperate to consolidate power, and had reluctantly agreed. Yet… he had to admit that it hadn’t quite worked. Carlos Jr was indeed huge and terrifying, but visibly weird-looking, and had been defeated by the Kangaroo Sage. Leites suspected that Casey had, in fact, added his own blood to the mix. “Mahooo” said Carlos Jr, and Leites nodded glumly.

As his comeback fight, Leites had challenged the second ranked Powerless Volume Puncher, but Tavares was still unwilling to return to battle, and the new Volume Puncher King had taken the fight in his stead. The rival BJJ Guys faction had been overjoyed with the new match, and had pointed out how Sapo and his assistant Bruno had both defeated Camozzi; how it was clear that he had been elevated by Bisping through sheer favouritism; that this new upstart was no true Volume Puncher King. It would truly be an embarrassment were Leites to lose.

Leites was less sure. He had heard about what had happened to Riggs, and Luthor, and he had heard others whispering of Camozzi. “The Unbreakable” they called him, “Twice Devoured and Yet Returned.” Leites turned away from the cell, filled with a fresh resolution. He would not let his dream die here. Like Camozzi, he too …

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